China air conditioning industry, which has been leaps and bounds in the 2017, may face new challenges in 2018. A series of recently released data show that since the end of 2017 to early 2018, air-conditioning sales year-on-year growth slowdown, showing a negative growth pattern, combined with the regulation of real estate, the expansion of production capacity, competition and other factors, is expected in 2018 will be difficult to continue last year’s high growth, but may have entered a period of adjustment.
Air conditioning sales growth slowed in the last couple of months
According to the recent industrial online data, the air conditioning industry sold 8 million 160 thousand units in November last year, up 8.47% from the same year, including 5 million 820 thousand in the domestic market, up 10.13% from the same year. From the cumulative data, the air conditioning industry sold 132 million units in 1~11 months, an increase of 32.1% over the same period. In the domestic market, the cumulative 8226 million, increased by 48.7% over the same period. But from the data point of view, the growth of air conditioning domestic sales has declined.
According to statistics, in 2017 49 ~ 52 weeks, retail market growth under the air conditioning line is -4.6%, compared to the air conditioner market retail volume in 2017 1 ~ 48 weeks up to 5.3% growth in 2017, air-conditioning market has “cop-out” flavor.
About this, China air conditioning manufacturers told reporters that after the eleven golden week in 2017, the air conditioning sales decline has emerged. The slight increase in November is due to the promotion of double eleven promotion season from the sales terminal. On the other hand, the replenishment of channels also has a stimulating effect on the delivery of air conditioners. In fact, these products are entering the warehouse of the channel merchants, not the sales to the consumers.
The risk of high inventory in the air conditioning industry has not been lifted
Different from other home appliances category, the air conditioning industry of high inventory has been regarded as a risk factor for the industry to be vigilant, because 40 million days the amount of inventory in 2014 there have been triggered the industry leader slashed prices to clear inventory, fighting is very intense.
According to the online industry data, as of the end of October 2017, the air conditioning industry total inventory 32 million 300 thousand, channel inventory 24 million 20 thousand, is benign. However, Orville yunwang (AVC) air conditioning industry Research Institute president Zhang Yanbin warned that the current domestic air-conditioning sales slowed, and last year’s sales (or even large area sold out of stock situations) to stimulate the Titans yield expansion, if exports once encountered resistance, air conditioning industry in 2018 or will face high risk stocks. Industry online chairman Yang Jie also said that China’s household air conditioners will continue to grow in the future. The target of mid long term peak value of “one hundred million” can be challenged, but enterprises need to be cautious in the process of capacity expansion.
In 2017, Haier Qingdao decided to add 15 million sets of air conditioning capacity layout. Changhong air conditioner also announced that it invested 1 billion 90 million yuan to build 4 million 200 thousand bases of adult capacity in Mianyang, Sichuan. AUX air conditioner also called its new intelligent factory, and its annual output will reach 7 million sets. From the end of 2017 to the beginning of 2018, two months, the production and sales volume of air conditioner compressor has hit a new high. Air conditioner manufacturers are accelerating production.
An incremental market is expected to be an increase in the size of an enterprise.
The industry generally expected, affected by the real estate sales downturn, coupled with the 2017 sales to some extent overdraft demand, air-conditioning industry in 2018 is very difficult to continue last year’s good performance.
However, there are still some incremental markets for the industry to dig. Zhang Yanbin said that at present, there is a big gap in the amount of air conditioners per 100 households in the rural market compared with the city. At present, there are 48 units per 100 households in the rural market, and 124 units per 100 households in the urban market, and the gap between the two is obvious. If the rural per hundred households has reached the city residents have air conditioning level, then the rural market will add more than 100000000 market space. For example, a brand new year in the 2018 cold opening meeting revealed that overweight will focus on offline channels, through the channel of continuous innovation to strengthen the line three or four grade market, the breadth and depth of the channel line to promote the “spiral” upgrade iteration; Jingdong last year in the 6 – 18 big promotion, is the rural market to focus on the layout of an unprecedented height.
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