In 2017, the global solar market soared 26%, for the first time exceeded 100 GW of installed PV capacity. According to GTM Research, it is expected that the new 106GW PV installed capacity will be added in 2018.
Combined with the trend of photovoltaic development in 2017, we summed up the 10 trends in the 2018 World PV market.
1. global solar bidding continues to increase
In 2017, a total of 53 countries participated in the bidding or auction of photovoltaic projects, which increased by 21 compared with the 32 in the second half of 2016. In 2018, 29 new countries are expected to implement a bid or auction plan.
2. the global market is diversified, but the big powers still dominate
China, the US, India and Japan will continue to dominate demand in 2018, but their share in the global market will drop from 82% in 2017 to 72% in 2018.
The number of countries that install 1GW and above each year will reach 14 from the present 9. Countries such as Brazil, Egypt, Mexico, Holland and Spain were the first to cross the threshold of 1GW in 2018.
3. the US market is expanding
18 states in the United States will add 1GW and above photovoltaic capacity between 2018 and 2022.
4. PV can compete and even compete with coal and gas
According to the global solar demand monitoring report, recent bids of photovoltaic projects are pushing the average PPA to compete with the cost of coal gas.
The bumpy road of the 5. component supply
The ratio of excess capacity is the ratio between capacity and demand. If the ECR range of healthy solar modules is defined as 30% to 60%, when the ECR is in this range, the price of components can be reduced at a stable price. When ECR exceeds this range, the market will oversupply and the price will decrease at a faster rate.
Looking forward to 2018, the first half of the year will be in a tight supply and demand, in the second half of the supply of oversupply environment. This means that prices are soaring in the first half of the year and the risk of rapid depreciation in the second half of the year. However, price appreciation may be limited in the first half of this year as the supply chain clears up excess inventory in the supply chain.
6. the balance cost of the system will be an important driving factor for reducing the cost
In 2018, the system balance cost will still account for a large share of the cost of large photovoltaic power stations. In addition to reducing hardware costs, efficiency improvement, efficient components and 1500V system will provide BOS cost savings and help solar energy compete with other power sources in other markets.
7. Mini inverters will exceed the centralized and serial Inverters
Micro inverters and DC optimizers currently occupy only a small part of the entire inverter market, but with the continuous development of distributed generation market and high safety concerns, the market will continue to expand.
8. solar system prices are high in the United States
The U.S. residential solar system is priced higher than the other major economic cooperation and Development Organization (OECD) solar market.
In the United States, the states have a big difference in pricing. “Hardware costs, wages, taxes, licenses and market base, and so on, the price difference between each state will reach 68 cents per degree.”
9. energy storage continues to be included in solar energy projects
The report points out that more than 350 bidding projects (83%) are used for the development and storage of renewable energy.
10. tariffs will hinder the solar market in the United States
According to the analysis, the Trump administration’s decision to impose tariffs on imported solar cells and components will lead to a 11% decrease in US solar PV installed capacity in the next five years. Compared with previous forecasts, solar photovoltaic capacity will be reduced by 7.6GW from 2018 to 2022. Building or hoarding components will mitigate the impact on the 2018 device, which has a greater impact on the downstream market in 2019. Large solar business will be more affected by solar energy than residential solar, and will account for a 65% reduction of 7.6GW in the next five years.
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